The Immigration Boom Slows
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its figures from the 2007 American Community Survey. The annual ACS survey has replaced the more commonly-known census, which was only administered once every 10 years. As you might imagine, the ACS provides reams of frequently-updated social, economic and demographic data about our nation.
One of the headline-grabbing bits of information to emerge from this year's ACS is that the number of immigrants entering the United States decreased dramatically from 2006 to 2007. In 2006 we attracted 1.8 million immigrants. In 2007, the number was approximately 500,000 (Ed. note: the ACS claims that its estimates for immigrants include those in the country legally and illegally because the agency does not ask about legal status--official figures put the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. at approximately 12 million.).
According to the new data, 14 states showed declines in the estimated number of immigrants from 2006 to 2007, including: New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont and South Dakota. I'm searching for Iowa-specific data and will update when and if I find it.
So, the logical question is, what's going on here? Why is this happening? Are we no longer the beacon of light, attracting the huddled masses, yearning to breathe free?
In my view there are a number of factors that correlate with this downturn in immigration. Now mind you, I'm not claiming that there is a direct causal connection between the events, but I think its fairly safe to say that they are partially interconnected.
Factor #1--The Fee Hike: As a starting point, the downturn in the number of people immigrating to the United States needs to be viewed in the context of The GREAT PROCESSING FEE SPIKE of 2007. For those of you who might not follow these issues on a daily basis, in January of 2007 USCIS announced that it would soon dramatically increase the fees applicants and petitioners had to pay in order to have their paperwork reviewed and processed by the USCIS. In many cases this amounted to an increase of hundreds or thousands of dollars of extra costs for families and companies. As a result, families and companies alike rushed to file any and every case that possibly could be filed before the fee hike took effect. This, in turn, caused a huge swell in the number of people attempting to immigrate to the United States. One figure indicated that more than 460,000 people applied for their citizenship during the month of June 2007 alone. It's probably safe to say that numbers were also likely inflated a fair bit during April and May. In sum, there clearly has been a precipitious fall off since last year in the number of people immigrating to the U.S., but last year's numbers were also inflated due to the swell caused by USCIS' processing fee hike. As we move a couple of years into this newly-inflated processing fee regime we'll be able to judge more accurately whether the costs imposed by the government are serving as a deterrent to legal immigration. Stay posted.
Factor #2--Downturn in the Economy: Economic opportunity has always been the engine that drives immigrants to the U.S. With the jobless rate passing 6% (the highest rate since 2003) it makes a fair bit of sense that immigration rates have correspondingly slowed a bit. In particular, the slump in the housing and construction sectors has been one of the largest factors stemming the flow of immigrants into the country.
Factor #3--Increased Enforcement (ie., ICE Raids): Postville, Iowa. Laurel, Mississippi. These are just a few examples of the ICE raids that have rocked virtually every region of our country over the course of the past twelve months. By design these raids have generated gobs of news headlines and, in turn, caused families and employers all over the country to wait and worry in a state of suspended anxiety. A recent Pew Hispanic Center survey detailed the extent to which the raids have taken a psychological toll on the Latino community in particular. No doubt these ICE raids have caused plenty of otherwise likely immigrants to stay the heck away, while causing some who are already here to conclude that this environment simply isn't worth the trouble.
Most of my readers have probably by now figured out that I view healthy immigration numbers as an integral part of our country's on-going success. But I'm not particularly worried about the dip we've seen from last year to this. As I've explained above, the governement's fee hike, our current economic plight and the increased ICE raids have all contibuted to cause this year's numbers to fall somewhat dramatically. But, in my view, there's hope. At least two of the deleterious factors should be temporary. Maybe as I write this Congress is getting their act together enough to pass a reasonable bailout (er, economic stabilization) bill. And maybe after November 4, 2008 we'll have the congressional and presidential leadership necessary to achieve pragmatic immigration reform. One can always hope...
